The Mobile & Wireless Scenario

Nick Jones made, as usual, a complete and worthy inventory of what to expect in the coming years from the wireless and mobile industry.

He started with determining where the business value lies with mobile today, in the 3 usual budget "zones":

• run: connection and mail are mainstream and should be commoditized, on the consumer front, SMS is in this category.
• grow: includes role-specific applications and, toward the consumer, new channels and communities.
• transform: introducing new collaborative tools and more context for the consumer target.

On the wireless network side, the evolution is still very strong and offers good visibility (more on this later).

8 technologies to watch:

• Bluetooth 3.0, with a WiFi bearer and a very low-power mode (for devices with 6 months to years battery-life) allowing for new applications.
• User interface: touch screens are getting everywhere but input and sensors will add to the user experience and usability.
• Location.
• 802.11n: will emerge in home settings but will be disruptive for corporates to deploy (there will be a need to rip and replace the existing infrastructure).
• Displays: flexible, passive, low power and pico-projectors.
• Mobile web and widgets: lacking standardization but provide for a good experience on many different devices.
• HSUPA and, later, LTE (Long Term Evolution): the need for wired network will decrease...
• Near Field Wireless (including NFC): adoption remains slow.

Market trends on mobile devices: 5 manufacturers cover 80% of the market and the enterprise is less and less targeted (almost abandoned by Nokia, see Intellisync).

Platforms: today 15% of the phones are smartphones, this will grow to 2/3 of the market. The 5 leaders are:

1. Symbian (mostly Nokia), which is consumer-oriented and will be soon open-sourced (supposedly making it a broader market choice).
2. RIM (20 millions devices sold), which has difficulty becoming a consumer platform, which is essential for its survival.
3. Windows Mobile: maintains enterprise strength but is losing steam (Nick estimates that version 6.5 & 7 are the last chance for MS to make a consumer product).
4. Apple: entirely consumer-focused.
5. Android (and other mobile linux initiatives will melt in it): not corporate-oriented now.

Among those 5, only 3 will remain in 3 years (impossible to know which ones). There is a risk for the decision maker... Right now, Nick sees a slight advantage for Google, but not by much.

Making money with mobile is proving difficult, except for the ecosystem owners (Apple, Google, Nokia). There is potential for business opportunities at every step of making business but less on purchase (mobile payment is not compelling to the consumer) and more on awareness or information search.

Location will evolve from simple to complex contexts (adding history, mood, habits, environment... to the equation).

Yet today statistics show that the consumer in mature markets have not found compelling services (in emerging market, the mobile is the web access tool of choice, so the perspective is different).

Corporate device strategy: it is getting quite difficult and the support issues should not be treated the same as for PCs. It will be necessary to support a number of different devices. But not all: some of them should be only accepted in the corporate environment with constraints for the user (for example: only for mail and web access). And some could get under "concierge support" (meaning the client bears the actual support cost, which will be high).

Finally, Nick gave 2 sets of recommendations:

• Inside the enterprise, in the present difficult times, the focus should stay on the "run" and "grow", not on the "transform" initiatives.
• Define a strategy for consumer-oriented applications, built upon a good knowledge of the business goals, the devices and habits the targeted consumers have (social) and the most effective technology.